Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) shares witnessed a surge of 2.41% on Thursday, reaching Rs 1,203.95 on the BSE by 2 PM, following positive reassessments from leading brokerage firms Jefferies and Kotak Institutional Equities. The renewed optimism stems from expectations of recovery in the retail business, potential telecom tariff hikes, and improved valuations.
Jefferies Reaffirms Buy Rating with Rs 1,600 Target Price
Global brokerage firm Jefferies reiterated its “Buy” rating on Reliance Industries, setting a target price of Rs 1,600 — indicating a 33.2% upside from the current levels. Jefferies highlighted that the market is overly pessimistic about RIL’s retail business. The firm expects retail segment growth to recover to 15% in FY26, driven by same-store sales expansion and new store openings.
Additionally, Jefferies emphasized that the current enterprise value of RIL’s retail business stands at $48 billion, significantly lower than its $106 billion valuation in the last funding round — indicating substantial growth potential.
Kotak Institutional Equities Upgrades to Buy
Domestic brokerage Kotak Institutional Equities upgraded Reliance Industries to “Buy” from its earlier “Add” rating. Kotak revised its target price to Rs 1,400, reflecting a 19% upside from the previous close of Rs 1,175.75 on March 5, 2025.
Despite trimming FY26-27 EBITDA estimates by 1-3%, Kotak expects an 11% earnings CAGR from FY24 to FY27. The brokerage firm believes the recent 22% correction in RIL’s stock price offers an attractive risk-reward opportunity.
Retail and Telecom Segments to Drive Growth
Both brokerages cited two key factors that could act as catalysts for RIL’s stock price in the near future:
- Reliance Jio IPO: The much-anticipated IPO of Reliance Jio could unlock significant value.
- Telecom Tariff Hike: A potential telecom tariff hike is expected to strengthen revenue growth in the coming quarters.
Technical Analysis: Downtrend Persists Despite Gains
Despite Thursday’s gains, Reliance Industries remains in a downtrend, having fallen over 20% in the past year and 9.6% in the last three months. The stock is currently trading below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages — indicating weak momentum.
However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 34, suggesting the stock is nearing oversold territory. This could signal a technical bounce in the near term.
Q3 Results Beat Expectations
In its Q3FY25 earnings report, Reliance Industries posted a consolidated net profit of Rs 18,540 crore, a 7.4% YoY increase, surpassing analyst expectations. The company’s consolidated PBIDT rose by 7.8% YoY to Rs 48,003 crore.
According to a Bloomberg survey, 11 analysts had predicted consolidated revenue of Rs 2.33 trillion, while nine analysts estimated net income of Rs 18,326 crore.
Market Outlook
As of 2 PM on Thursday, Reliance Industries was trading at Rs 1,203.95, up 2.41%, while the BSE Sensex remained flat at 73,776.63. Analysts believe that positive triggers like the potential Reliance Jio IPO, telecom tariff hikes, and recovery in retail growth could further bolster investor sentiment.
With 33 out of 38 analysts maintaining a “Buy” rating, the long-term outlook for Reliance Industries remains bullish despite recent corrections.